Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26dfb62a39616b1c0b1342448a39db6b129943a83fcd71a0a5f028381fb532bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 534.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 317.97$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 266.26$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 255.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 6c | 251.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 28c | 246.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 241.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 189.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 173$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 164.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 17c | 159$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 152.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 151.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 40c | 113.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 49c | 112.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 52c | 92.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 53c | 91.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 58c | 86.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 51c | 85.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 84.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 23c | 59.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 158 | 30.4%48 W · 110 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 24c | 59.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 57c | 52.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 38c | 52.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 74c | 50.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 50.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 48c | 50.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 49.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 53c | 49.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 57c | 47.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 54c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…e54bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 63c | 41.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 713 | 33.5%239 W · 474 L | +33.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 52c | 38.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 38.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 54c | 36.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 46c | 36.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 36.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 34.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 48c | 32.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 52c | 31.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 633 | 49.9%316 W · 317 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 29.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…1e2bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 27.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 59c | 26.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 55c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…915bbacked Yes | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed No | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…9a38backed Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.