Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8468b14e24fffcfae6416a3093b8eba59dec0025871e2fede56a58b68e798b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 19c | 477.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 16c | 346.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 227.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 22c | 224.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 9c | 191.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 16c | 114.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 80c | 89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed No | 16c | 79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 78c | 75.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 75c | 75.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 21c | 61.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 52.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 80c | 50.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 49.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 23c | 47.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 29c | 44.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…4b09backed No | 26c | 43.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed No | 78c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 77c | 35.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…0ae2backed Yes | 31c | 32.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 48c | 28.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 77c | 28.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 77c | 23.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a0…a8a6backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.