Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1ec6abf88c7f9fc3118f361a20edbacf938f2cb04fb62004e0af1eee6edab2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 34c | 587.63$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 23c | 453.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 25c | 290.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked Yes | 70c | 282.63$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 30c | 270.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 43c | 205.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 22c | 172.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 152.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 31c | 129.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 27c | 111.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 23c | 103.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 96.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 80c | 95.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 67c | 83.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed No | 33c | 79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 65c | 77.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 44c | 72.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 22c | 67.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 65.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 25c | 59.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 29c | 59.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked Yes | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 36c | 50.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 77c | 49.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 39c | 48.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 34c | 44.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…a32dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed No | 28c | 43.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 63c | 43.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 77c | 42.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 36c | 42.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 32c | 40.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 75c | 40.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 28c | 40.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 68c | 35.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 60c | 31.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 30.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 62c | 28.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 43c | 25.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed Yes | 63c | 25.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 23.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 57c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 67c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 70c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.