Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4223e591094e1362ce4f8f65bd5288e6833f66d425d1e358e6bc5074f747858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 227.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 180.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 45c | 176.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 33c | 168.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 72c | 147.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 12c | 138.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 37c | 132.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 124.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 109.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 57c | 101.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 29c | 97.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed No | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 78.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 77.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 37c | 77.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 34c | 76.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed No | 24c | 65.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 37c | 64.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 38c | 58.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 73c | 53.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 27c | 53.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 66c | 51.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 26c | 48.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 36c | 47.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 65c | 44.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 62c | 43.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 42.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 73c | 41.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 75c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 67c | 39.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 36.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 71c | 35.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed No | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 60c | 34.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 33c | 33.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 65c | 31.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 42c | 31.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 52c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 50c | 27.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 26.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 25.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked Yes | 71c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 69c | 22.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 62c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 73c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 70c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.