TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,744 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf360…6726backed Yes65c1,459$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.1710824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes24c1,064$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.9324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No36c1,009$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.5810330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes18c1,004$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.5436113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes69c922.78$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.2615649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No34c623.97$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.166216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes49c541.05$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6712232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No70c533.27$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.418960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No60c506.68$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0313038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No31c495.43$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7614451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No26c454.64$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.222763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8423464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes12c330$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.153650%18 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c317.3$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes42c299.7$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.871735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No32c272.92$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes27c270.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3522926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c247.42$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e7…974dbacked No80c239.92$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.17887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+135.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdadf…8034backed Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162306.7%2 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes17c195.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.775538.2%21 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c185.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.972,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c180.75$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8924155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes15c180.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.740719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c179.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6324932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes15c175.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9927224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c173$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1430955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed No19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid+35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No47c142.12$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.218342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ab…e99cbacked Yes72c141.65$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.653151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes20c140$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1129240.2%37 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c132.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8439518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xea4b…eb8cbacked Yes20c129.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.37825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No8c127.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.731216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c120$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.221857.8%126 W · 92 L+0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes56c115.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.191533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes18c110.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.06933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No69c103.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6616969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No41c101.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7511564.3%74 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8842719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fdf…342ebacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes78c99.55$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6716831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1849…137ebacked Yes23c98.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.22642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdabd…ed1cbacked Yes39c96.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+114.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c93.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6626461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No16c87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.342171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c14…8da1backed Yes18c83.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No32c81.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.092441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba70…b6c7backed Yes22c81.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.462528%7 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes19c81.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.07728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d74…04e3backed Yes18c75.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363b…006abacked Yes18c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7172…5e45backed Yes18c65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.31040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes17c65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.951330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c8…0af5backed Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No57c57.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.931741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes20c53.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+151.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No64c53.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3651018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No44c50.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2134039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No71c50.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.289654.2%52 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2166…d717backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+231.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No37c47.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.589440.4%38 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c46.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2428723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No58c43.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.352653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed Yes46c43.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No59c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed Yes32c39.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.859532.6%31 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No45c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.613743.2%16 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No52c38.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e43…40d8backed No27c38.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No41c36.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fa…595fbacked No54c34.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No46c34.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.142462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec60…5adebacked Yes46c34.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+88.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35d…5df9backed Yes45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198c…7328backed Yes75c25.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a56…2806backed Yes71c24.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c17.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810145.5%46 W · 55 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcba…223fbacked No73c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.