TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,592 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes11c3,548$405 inLost-$405.4536113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes11c2,304$263 inLost-$263.2724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes19c1,910$355 inLost-$355.4112232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes6c1,326$75 inLost-$75.3862539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c890$12 inLost-$11.675535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda7…7b78backed Yes4c512.08$20 inLost-$20.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes6c400$24 inLost-$24.242628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes14c389.77$55 inLost-$54.718915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c352.4$20 inLost-$19.61,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes7c310.56$21 inLost-$20.6722926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e33…2313backed Yes6c299.99$19 inLost-$18.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c269.54$14 inLost-$14.094916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes6c262.79$15 inLost-$155598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes5c256.26$12 inLost-$11.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c253.93$16 inLost-$16.252,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes12c206.75$24 inLost-$24.1127647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadf…8034backed Yes18c200$36 inLost-$36.4306.7%2 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes12c194.21$24 inLost-$23.916216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba70…b6c7backed Yes9c181.57$16 inLost-$162528%7 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No74c173.95$128 inWon+$45.955141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c145.68$20 inLost-$20.0340719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c141.35$108 inWon+$32.9926461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c126.41$11 inLost-$11.286915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes11c125.53$13 inLost-$13.4613511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1e…b581backed Yes12c109.01$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1044227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes26c67.96$18 inLost-$17.8119229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No79c67$53 inWon+$14.392462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd4e…d6edbacked Yes25c59.35$15 inLost-$14.724440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No77c51.8$40 inWon+$11.882650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No76c50$38 inWon+$11.8111564.3%74 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No61c25$15 inWon+$9.859654.2%52 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No75c24.92$19 inWon+$6.112352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1b…9bdabacked Yes69c23.19$16 inLost-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+127.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked No58c20$12 inWon+$8.417324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.