TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9fdf…342e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$51.16
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+74.3%+$49.51
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.92
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+107.9%+$37.44
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$23.23
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.57
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$76.91
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.3
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$15.85
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$62.38
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77.2%+$50.78
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.36
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.51
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.31
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.85
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.87
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.2
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.98
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+176%+$244.4
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.71
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$42.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+85.2%+$86.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$88.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.