Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5343bcc64e36280feeb2be3c8ce2d84ffd6f5ebdef52f3a99a64d427a5d8bb2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 4,491$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 3c | 2,987$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,832$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 1,730$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 64c | 1,448$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.69 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,060$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.08 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 798.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 9c | 650.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 34c | 613.02$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.27 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 599.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 5c | 553.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 517$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked No | 43c | 512.16$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.93 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 5c | 511.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 422.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 404$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 34c | 400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 32c | 366.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.83 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 359.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 73c | 355.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.76 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 15c | 345.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 339.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 24c | 317.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.33 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 55c | 307.48$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 4c | 284.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 71c | 257.71$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 245.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 235.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 25c | 230.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 58c | 229.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 45c | 221.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.87 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 211.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 188.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 187$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 21c | 177.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 22c | 175.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 161.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 58c | 156.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 33c | 156.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 18c | 154.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 51c | 153.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 146.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 19c | 144.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 43c | 137.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 133.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 18c | 133.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 70c | 124.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 120.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 120.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 118.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 22c | 117.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 105.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 99.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 94.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 51c | 93.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 80c | 90.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 25c | 86.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 83.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes | 28c | 80.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…c199backed Yes | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked No | 65c | 72.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 53c | 69.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 27c | 67.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 26c | 63.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 68c | 60.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 33c | 59.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac09…fc58backed Yes | 34c | 59.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e7…5fddbacked No | 72c | 59.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 59.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 24c | 58.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 20c | 55.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 44c | 55.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 53.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 78c | 50.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 32c | 47.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 68c | 47.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 29c | 43.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…13b3backed No | 69c | 43.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 42.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.