Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2b0d46160fb89445eaaf66cff03f5834cb839d659b4bb488a332b5462dde57

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $316,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $224,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,856 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa639…7135backed Yes	1c	27,363$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.64	48	2.1%1 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	7cpaid	-96%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	10,694$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	20%10 W · 40 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	8,682$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.84	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	8,571$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.74	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	1c	7,221$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.09	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…5d4cbacked Yes	1c	7,174$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.29	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	5,459$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.16	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	5,394$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.15	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	2c	5,241$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.72	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	5,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,753$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.54	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes	2c	4,672$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.9	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	2c	3,825$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.22	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	4c	3,600$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.6	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	3,094$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,008$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,921$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,778$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,516$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.78	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,404$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,314$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	2,165$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.22	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Yes	2c	2,105$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	1,980$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	1,572$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,540$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	1,402$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.86	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	1,276$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Yes	1c	1,171$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,155$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,125$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.06	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes	2c	1,111$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	1,096$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	1c	1,059$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	1,020$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0504…3799backed Yes	2c	930.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes	1c	910$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	104	12.5%13 W · 91 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	892.64$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.15	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	889$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.43	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	849.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	813.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	799.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	778.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	723.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	3c	502.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	4c	479.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	4c	308.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	279.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event