Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be472b94f0ee7fd0ecfb9393935c9815745aac23be4b35a123ecf20a0568e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 2c | 906$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 29c | 587.38$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.78 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 2c | 580.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 450$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 409.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 37c | 402.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 398.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 38c | 377.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 372.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 4c | 349.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 5c | 343.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 337.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 4c | 328.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 5c | 284$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 280.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 13c | 260.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 253.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 246.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 27c | 244.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 235.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 10c | 212.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 212.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 209.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 5c | 197.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 193$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 192.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 13c | 184.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 177.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 9c | 176.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 27c | 171.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 161.87$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 157.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 10c | 155.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 12c | 139.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…3392backed No | 76c | 138.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +127%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 15c | 132.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 129.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 21c | 127.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 10c | 118.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 11c | 116.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 30c | 108.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…6278backed Yes | 14c | 108.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 11c | 105.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 105.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 102.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 100.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 80c | 99.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 88.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 41c | 83.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 73.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 19c | 70.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 62.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 59.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 22c | 51.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 74c | 40.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 64c | 31.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 78c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.