Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6523fff4522832eb72db52c6ea3043bbe1ae318e5c87739e7b8f2806841230c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 1,085$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 880$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…ae10backed Yes | 51c | 777.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 17c | 721.38$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.51 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 614.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 50c | 479.81$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.92 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 429.19$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 58c | 313.53$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.27 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 21c | 309.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.84 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 62c | 283.61$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 15c | 263.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 6c | 259.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 46c | 256.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 220.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 212.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…bc0ebacked Yes | 43c | 208.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 195.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 50c | 186.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 186.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 184.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 177.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.74 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 176.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 17c | 166.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 165.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 160.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 46c | 156.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…3392backed Yes | 75c | 152.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +127%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 152.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 11c | 150.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 145.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 133.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 12c | 106$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 47c | 105.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 103.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 39c | 102.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 101.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 24c | 98.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 53c | 95.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 88.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 58c | 79.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 75.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 53c | 75.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 40c | 74.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 73.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 73.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 72.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 71.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 64c | 69.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 39c | 68.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 57c | 68.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 68c | 63.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 54c | 62.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 61c | 62.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 56c | 62.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 23c | 60.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 24c | 60.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 18c | 59.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 34c | 56.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 57c | 56.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 55.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 51c | 54.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 54.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 30c | 54.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 58c | 51.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b32…a197backed Yes | 49c | 51.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 33c | 50.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 50.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 48.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked Yes | 41c | 48.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 45.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 34c | 45.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.