TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c1,385$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes21c973.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.427756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c596.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.511,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No63c567.97$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.1139966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes24c519.9$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.482,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c513.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.417,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes26c497.23$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes18c364.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5724710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes23c341.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7319217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2733…5ae8backed Yes38c261.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.25733.3%19 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No63c252.96$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c245.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes19c236.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d3…20c1backed Yes15c229.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.351428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes5c210.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.691,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c208.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes5c201.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8261…d341backed No75c194.33$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951872.2%13 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes28c189.48$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1211935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes24c186.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5237355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c180$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.652,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes9c161$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.263740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c153.59$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd476…aa8ebacked Yes27c149.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fce…6732backed Yes20c144.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No64c141.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed No74c140$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.47968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes8c139.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.595042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762b…d3b9backed Yes29c136.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.141520%3 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes25c116.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.782,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c116.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.838,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…0cf2backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.553855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Yes30c99.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9817025.3%43 W · 127 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes26c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes40c97.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.975726.3%15 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes26c95.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5c…3033backed Yes40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c86.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.13,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d85…8d52backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c79.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.971,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes37c74.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.414551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No75c74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.527669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c70.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.912,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972a…aee7backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c68.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.857,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c68.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.955,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes16c67.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0752322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c64.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd939…5314backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No74c64.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.441,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No70c61.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3425358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c60.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6271159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.816036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes38c57.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes38c57.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8412832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes41c56.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0880130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes41c53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7347538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.789,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes24c51.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4760519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.78337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1805…a069backed Yes24c48.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No75c47.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8313051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No67c44.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9182268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No67c44.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7716263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1a…4c96backed No80c41.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes36c41.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8155538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No64c40.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.413167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.41,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No60c33.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3446667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No75c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No68c32.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6591861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes37c32.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No67c31.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No67c29.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.511257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No70c25.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.757264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe205…7b9abacked No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe801…764fbacked No78c24.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.425872.4%42 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb5…0200backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53661.1%22 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No70c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No65c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa269…2f5bbacked No72c15.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.