TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f63…42f2backed Yes1c12,350$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.012035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes0c10,113$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes0c4,526$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.919741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes2c2,442$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5096015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5597…c6fbbacked No78c1,373$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.133066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes2c907.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1124710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Yes4c751.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb6…c514backed Yes36c700.79$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.643030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+7.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c618$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes17c599.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10228925.3%73 W · 216 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad81…efd5backed Yes42c545.87$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes11c512.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c511.45$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2913215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes36c455.86$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9547423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes22c419.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6355336.7%203 W · 350 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes22c406.41$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5414659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes32c364.67$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c340.27$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.331,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c319.95$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes11c269.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.763,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…65e9backed Yes4c252.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c250.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e09…5eefbacked No65c240$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.751668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+85.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x986b…1cc2backed Yes34c235.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.661118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes26c227.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6061821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c225.56$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.612,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes14c211.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.172035%7 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+82.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465347.2%25 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64f6…15a2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817.4%6 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…4444backed Yes27c199.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559728.9%28 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes20c197$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6830832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c189.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.211,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c186.8$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.854,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No60c182.57$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8616348.5%79 W · 84 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3da…b638backed Yes31c170.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.862441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c154$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No66c148.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c135.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.367,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes12c130.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7214926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6aa…8484backed Yes34c126.6$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48f…2327backed Yes10c125.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.423946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes44c114.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255714%8 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes29c111.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9212535.2%44 W · 81 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c102.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10fe…9af6backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307230.6%22 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No77c98.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes25c85.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216426.6%17 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Yes43c84.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.037541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes19c79.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes45c72.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7819648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8a…9362backed Yes25c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167529.3%22 W · 53 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…a384backed Yes24c62.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c58.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8662137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes35c55.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.298027.5%22 W · 58 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x354b…284cbacked Yes21c54.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.570%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No54c53.48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4516968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes33c51.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2855538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No70c47.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.165981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96ea…8cd5backed Yes21c46.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6d…f921backed Yes30c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.293324.2%8 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes41c41.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6228946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c7e…428cbacked Yes37c32.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f5…27acbacked Yes38c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72020%4 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-58.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No68c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.324065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6962…0629backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No78c23.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.384,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x106f…b8eebacked Yes50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-68.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c21.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No76c21.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7786362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No68c20.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeaf…9ce1backed No70c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.293470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.