Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb022ee0c0ba82a90da4798c87ccce945d7e853e931d0408feb4564c8330d0a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 14c | 1,330$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,101$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 870.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 12c | 429.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…e2edbacked No | 76c | 353.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 231.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 78c | 199.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 19c | 199.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 198.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 6c | 181.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 148.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 25c | 129.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 21c | 116.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 12c | 115.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 22c | 89.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 78.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 25c | 75.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 78c | 61.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 26c | 51.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…31fbbacked Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed No | 79c | 33.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.