Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67030e957bc789e20118d48d74e98763e7954bb73baa08d4359475796f90963c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 23c | 1,574$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,235$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 31c | 1,174$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 1,117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,113$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 1,105$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 5c | 963.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 823.32$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 36c | 780.6$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 759.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 80c | 727.92$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 5c | 710.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 9c | 581.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 559.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 545.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 537.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 5c | 534.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 6c | 518.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…bd51backed Yes | 15c | 506.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 435.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 432.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 17c | 405.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 79c | 400.5$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 399.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 375.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 373.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 6c | 361.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 4c | 350.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…9c8cbacked Yes | 5c | 344.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afe…847cbacked Yes | 63c | 316.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 18c | 310.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 309.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 23c | 297.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 292.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 75c | 288.96$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 285.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…de02backed Yes | 4c | 278.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 277.51$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 44c | 259.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 246.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 236.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 20c | 236.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…ec7dbacked Yes | 13c | 231.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 218.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 8c | 210.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 207.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 73c | 197.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 11c | 189.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 187.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 187.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed Yes | 11c | 174.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 165.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 13c | 153.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 56c | 137.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 8c | 136.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 134.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 132.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…b09fbacked Yes | 40c | 130.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 12c | 129.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 41c | 127$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 123.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 123$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf367…212ebacked Yes | 14c | 117.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 108.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 76c | 106.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 25c | 99.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 42c | 97.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 14c | 91.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 89.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 16c | 87.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…c237backed Yes | 37c | 79.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 64c | 77.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 24c | 76.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 71.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Yes | 43c | 70.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 68.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…58ffbacked Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…b8eebacked Yes | 47c | 63.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 19c | 59.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 55.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 54.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 47c | 54.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 52.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 27c | 51.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…fe61backed Yes | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…c38ebacked Yes | 34c | 40.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked No | 47c | 39.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.