Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1728feb35081396295323ddba709e9661cb596b1986b6d0e53a70eeba26f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 0c | 10,941$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 0c | 6,977$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 6,173$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 49c | 977.77$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 35c | 489.96$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.79 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 51c | 399.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 385.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 363$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 290$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 252.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 17c | 239.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 219.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 44c | 200.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 6c | 192$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 110.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 46c | 108.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 12c | 106.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 48c | 102.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 100.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 96.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 95.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 52c | 84.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 73.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 38c | 72.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 51c | 64.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 57.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 51.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 55c | 50.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…284cbacked Yes | 54c | 50.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 49.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 48c | 49.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked Yes | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed No | 54c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 49c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 38.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 46c | 37.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 37.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 51c | 34.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 48c | 31.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 30.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 28.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 50c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 23.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 48c | 23.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8541backed Yes | 46c | 22.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 54c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 46c | 21.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…f81abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.