Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c09be0a57a59fb51e6b6c2138035d3595012a9d92608bc57b62e36bcf175749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,367$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,322.45 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 77c | 4,841$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.33 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed No | 10c | 2,512$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.86 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 1,654$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.03 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 19c | 1,540$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 1,481$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 1,334$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 5c | 1,223$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 56c | 1,193$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 1,174$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 77c | 1,154$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.9 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 9c | 1,124$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 33c | 1,119$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.94 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 838.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 16c | 824.78$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 787.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.26 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…c39bbacked Yes | 8c | 784.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 618.38$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 38c | 616.22$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 6c | 587.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 26c | 528.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.8 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 55c | 506.1$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 40c | 494.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 66c | 481.02$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 472.26$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 440$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 438.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 44c | 427.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.69 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 79c | 404.19$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 61c | 383.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 33c | 324.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…f81abacked No | 5c | 314.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 74c | 313.9$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 311.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.64 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 16c | 301.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.31 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 44c | 299.42$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 8c | 268.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 5c | 256.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 248.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 74c | 236.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 76c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 63c | 220.16$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 44c | 214.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 212.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 209.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Yes | 76c | 202.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 195.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…37d1backed Yes | 15c | 193.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 191$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 35c | 189.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 45c | 174.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 172.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 28c | 171.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 166$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 165$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 163.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 38c | 154.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…c38ebacked Yes | 34c | 154.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 152.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 150.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 58c | 146.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.34 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 63c | 128.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 57c | 121.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 30c | 120.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 51c | 120.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 117.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 113.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 109.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes | 13c | 105$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 104.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…02a9backed Yes | 77c | 104.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 80c | 100.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…b7b5backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 36c | 90.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 78c | 86.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 25c | 85.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 72c | 84.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 35c | 83.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 31c | 77.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 44c | 77.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 76c | 76.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 63c | 70.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed No | 36c | 69.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 49c | 67.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…4066backed Yes | 59c | 67.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 70c | 67.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 25c | 66.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 45c | 63.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 76c | 57.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.