TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sonegoof Musetti, Sonego
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,556
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,556 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x057a…3bacbacked Sonego36c8,482$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,433.216644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Sonego11c6,085$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,410.1515436.4%56 W · 98 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Musetti72c5,070$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.710845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Sonego28c4,721$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.964831.3%15 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Sonego58c4,565$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.7765242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Sonego25c4,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9717823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x286c…caffbacked Musetti75c3,994$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001675%12 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Musetti74c3,500$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Musetti76c3,317$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.072152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Musetti76c3,298$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.342,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Sonego21c3,127$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.7925722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Musetti72c2,440$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.6533955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sonego24c1,875$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4251,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd3…c333backed Sonego26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Sonego55c1,451$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.2813762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Sonego51c1,409$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.0875547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Sonego28c1,400$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.4244125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sonego32c1,275$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.852,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Musetti17c1,198$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Musetti64c1,164$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.0811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Musetti72c1,160$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.4122037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3792…3f75backed Sonego26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb406…ebaabacked Musetti77c1,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7701163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61cd…528cbacked Musetti74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc491…61f7backed Sonego26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+146%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f86…4b75backed Musetti74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick73cpaid-63.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcff1…1e74backed Sonego26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21c…2585backed Sonego26c972$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Sonego22c867.83$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.196530.8%20 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…63fdbacked Musetti74c860$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe63b…7ef5backed Sonego26c846$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+94.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc708…f8b1backed Musetti74c846$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x606f…8fa9backed Musetti74c826$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Musetti78c825.71$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.016,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7426…b4f5backed Musetti74c800$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda1f…4e08backed Sonego26c800$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa8…a58ebacked Musetti26c787.11$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6e…eca0backed Musetti74c786$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Sonego30c776.64$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.6557645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Sonego25c753.2$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sonego23c730.79$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.1455143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c84…d048backed Sonego26c700$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+94.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b48…1769backed Musetti74c700$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7058…26b2backed Musetti75c667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.25955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7df…27cdbacked Sonego27c662.09$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.451040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Musetti8c618.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8b…3047backed Musetti77c617.81$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.715450%27 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Musetti77c617.39$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.3914546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbade…84b8backed Musetti74c600$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4c…913fbacked Sonego26c600$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4445100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+87.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3bb…e7a1backed Musetti55c548.05$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti70c544.74$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.778,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Musetti38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5753…0da7backed Musetti76c521.83$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2666…0d98backed Musetti77c520.22$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…e9ebbacked Musetti74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick73cpaid-63.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Sonego28c473$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5613935.3%49 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Sonego28c437.9$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.291844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe9d…5eb1backed Sonego23c434.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.784955.1%27 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f20…0360backed Musetti74c400$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-76.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Musetti75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b26…e5edbacked Musetti74c400$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6de9…da80backed Musetti73c358$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd311…cc81backed Sonego27c357.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.34475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+113.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Musetti3c353.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b3b1backed Sonego31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5837233.9%126 W · 246 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Musetti74c316$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.847356.2%41 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Sonego65c307.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.515362.3%33 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe742…e16cbacked Musetti48c304.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…97b5backed Sonego26c300$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Musetti59c259$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.771,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Musetti15c253.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7519131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Musetti74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18570465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sonego24c242.83$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.52,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3694…4fd6backed Musetti10c230.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.171526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Sonego23c226.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.077226.4%19 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ba8…a241backed Musetti9c205.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Sonego25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15016146.6%75 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdf…edf9backed Musetti77c199.71$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.783458.8%20 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick70cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x00d6…6f8cbacked Musetti75c198.67$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed Sonego27c191.88$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.767432.4%24 W · 50 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Musetti31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b2…e7cfbacked Musetti78c160.26$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255865.5%38 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf72…a19fbacked Musetti78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172572%18 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+97.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x647d…3cd9backed Sonego26c149.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.985358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Sonego71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8520257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Sonego28c140$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.842141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed46…1badbacked Musetti72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Musetti74c136.47$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Musetti75c133.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001580%12 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Musetti78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4728…f975backed Sonego28c117.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Sonego25c110.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.245831%18 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego27c109.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.892,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88d…1da9backed Musetti11c100.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Sonego26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7449749.9%248 W · 249 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f24…59e7backed Sonego74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Sonego21c94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2631819.2%61 W · 257 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Sonego15c85.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4949632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cae…b135backed Sonego26c76.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.