Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c7ba018dce639894e2d3884c647830c12d7deec863f3bb821f894ffc096674e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 26c | 1,940$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…66ebbacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 23c | 870$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 6c | 852.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…9a02backed Yes | 48c | 846.06$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf540…01f5backed Yes | 40c | 549.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 458.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 34c | 416.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked Yes | 21c | 360$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 37c | 332.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 39c | 320.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…01c0backed Yes | 37c | 305.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 36c | 305.31$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 63c | 300.39$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 36c | 249.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 63c | 202.51$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…caf2backed Yes | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 166.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b3…2280backed No | 74c | 145$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 20c | 143$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 73c | 137.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…acbabacked Yes | 40c | 104.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…7681backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 35c | 97.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 96.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e95…fe7ebacked No | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…402dbacked Yes | 35c | 84.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 39c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 67c | 80.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 29c | 79.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 49c | 68.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…406dbacked No | 67c | 59.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 57.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 53.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…6326backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d37…35e4backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 49.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 49.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 54c | 44.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…496dbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 39.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 35.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 51c | 33.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…b3c8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…2682backed Yes | 49c | 20.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…9145backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.