Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71245919977c52d334137315be63a05b1cb4ef42cf6d8b96251519a78111adeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked Yes | 0c | 111,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…f3a7backed Yes | 7c | 22,295$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…66ebbacked Yes | 2c | 13,335$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…6515backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 76c | 1,555$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.79 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 46c | 1,489$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.49 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,174$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 58c | 559.27$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.32 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 41c | 535.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.36 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 457.45$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d37…35e4backed Yes | 8c | 427.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 63c | 424.19$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 60c | 416.67$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 386.73$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 35c | 369.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 25c | 339.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked Yes | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…e972backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 46c | 277.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 267.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 247.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 18c | 217.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…5286backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 30c | 198.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 64c | 166.67$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 64c | 155.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b3…2280backed No | 49c | 150.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 37c | 144.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 123.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…0180backed Yes | 42c | 117.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 27c | 117.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…acbabacked Yes | 52c | 114.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21d…20cfbacked Yes | 43c | 113.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 54c | 109.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…41debacked Yes | 65c | 103.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 48c | 103.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 57c | 98.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 52c | 70.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…addabacked Yes | 43c | 69.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…01c0backed Yes | 43c | 69.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…a997backed Yes | 30c | 61.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 32c | 60.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 58.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 47c | 58.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…d45cbacked Yes | 48c | 52.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 20c | 50.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…050abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 47c | 44.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7262…dd51backed Yes | 49c | 41.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Yes | 52c | 39.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…caaebacked Yes | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…c9d7backed Yes | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 57c | 31.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 27.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 61c | 27.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…f05fbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…23efbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.