Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1479b7a41b6a4e4061fbb671f591126255a2230c5b1358965de33501d1a8294f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5af…db61backed No | 1c | 3,339$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked No | 1c | 3,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 65c | 1,356$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.49 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 38c | 1,198$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…1131backed Yes | 7c | 1,056$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.15 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +15.2wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +83%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,054$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 3c | 999.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.92 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 1c | 779.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 5c | 649.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.48 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 48c | 502.19$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 478.02$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 425.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 15c | 416.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.37 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 14c | 401.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 8c | 349.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.33 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…9c8bbacked No | 78c | 329.73$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 14c | 309.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.7 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 9c | 267.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 49c | 267.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 8c | 261.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.72 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 50c | 174.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.15 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 14c | 155.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…8b85backed Yes | 10c | 139.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…0180backed Yes | 47c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 112.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 18c | 108.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 43c | 104.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 15c | 100.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 20c | 88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…ec13backed No | 53c | 53.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…790abacked Yes | 47c | 53.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 56c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…d78bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on November 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.