TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6694…f3a7backed Yes77c2,161$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No2c1,900$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.124710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc107…0137backed No4c1,581$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.248016.3%13 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes54c1,465$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.353122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb8…d9c1backed No27c1,307$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.398043.8%35 W · 45 L+11.8wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+19.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5778…4581backed Yes45c1,161$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.183046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No42c990.32$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.584124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No27c821.79$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-70.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c640.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.92,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked Yes76c615.31$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No54c587.07$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.813948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes46c446.12$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.4927534.2%94 W · 181 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed No17c409.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.574316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes66c381.85$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.832330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes31c338.44$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.724231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No20c332.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.881,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes66c327.43$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.714643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1578…4b73backed Yes36c307.74$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.244337.2%16 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes46c295$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.411449.1%56 W · 58 L+17.9wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+104.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No48c286.03$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.422,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d5…bcfdbacked No36c281$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.471315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes39c249.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes49c226.45$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.451346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…ba00backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes66c219$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.461353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeee…a4a9backed Yes74c217.21$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No56c204.53$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.795756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8d…1425backed Yes73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc88…a949backed Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes58c199.42$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.812240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No57c198.32$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f8…f8d5backed No38c194.1$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7654529.5%161 W · 384 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd80d…acd7backed Yes52c192.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd4…815cbacked No48c182$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5072…c02abacked No48c181$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes55c179.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.424,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb332…c5aabacked Yes52c175$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ee…10c4backed Yes53c168$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c166.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.079,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7493…01c0backed Yes40c148.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c142.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.82,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes38c138.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.061,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6186…c98abacked No10c137.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes35c123$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No50c116.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.884759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x064d…9472backed Yes61c112.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f70…d13abacked Yes9c112$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.929433.4%32 W · 911 L-1.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes62c110.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.424835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e2…f0e3backed Yes47c107.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes37c106.11$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.857542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.73215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf768…af8bbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56f…8848backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff6…5905backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227f…41e3backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae64…84cbbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x816a…433dbacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50db…8bdcbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ac…150dbacked Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x219b…2de6backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ef…b084backed Yes47c98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00cb…164bbacked No53c98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…1720backed Yes53c94.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.21650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes60c83.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.815752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x420d…8c5ebacked Yes49c83.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b0…5663backed Yes25c79.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef36…3e1dbacked Yes42c76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb3…92cfbacked No58c76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7262…dd51backed Yes49c72.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No51c68.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353810.5%4 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-71.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked No53c68.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d1…83eebacked No51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes48c59.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0832310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9221…289ebacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b0…2413backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdeb…28dabacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d37…35e4backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3246423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No28c49.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9643713.3%58 W · 379 L-78.8wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-63.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ce8…41debacked Yes52c47.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes42c47.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa6b3…2280backed No27c46.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8484…4de9backed Yes54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa929…a8b4backed Yes49c45.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe81…caaebacked Yes45c44.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d1…eda0backed No51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29de…42c6backed Yes49c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefcb…a53fbacked No51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…fee2backed Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb69e…d1babacked No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…1690backed No57c39.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c36.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dff…e1bdbacked Yes57c35.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-80.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48af…15e2backed No51c34.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.573938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2808…0649backed Yes59c34.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes61c32.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.