Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b86c051238d01bad21f65e5de8e2dfbc753c0c9a2e724992c0acec42f78ee4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,762$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…b40bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,360$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.05 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,899$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,881$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,721$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 6c | 1,423$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 25c | 1,404$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.55 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 1,331$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,149$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 15c | 896.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 14c | 823.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 79c | 700$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 637.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 586.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 25c | 545.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 27c | 534.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 12c | 498.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 16c | 482.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Yes | 16c | 444.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 399.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…9346backed No | 77c | 364.66$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 362.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 343.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 310$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 8c | 309.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 34c | 289.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…c9b9backed Yes | 38c | 260.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 241.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…12adbacked No | 77c | 240.56$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 11c | 205.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed No | 70c | 188.47$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 68c | 158.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 33c | 149.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 22c | 140.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 9c | 127.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 22c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 114.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 73c | 108.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c8…35ebbacked Yes | 19c | 108.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe5…6634backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…7e06backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 77c | 92.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 29c | 86.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 76.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 25c | 74.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…bf31backed Yes | 30c | 67.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 22c | 64.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 64.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea8…046ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…5890backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 35c | 49.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…4c01backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd26…371dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.