Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8572840f742f73810e3145625e741affdf9b59d419cc0582cb9bb29f825d06a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf058…955bbacked No | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 57c | 1,052$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.69 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 821.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 791.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 50c | 748.52$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.26 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 21c | 732.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 79c | 633.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 50c | 504.11$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 54c | 465.54$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.91 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 47c | 448.47$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.82 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 72c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…0346backed Yes | 41c | 399.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 335.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 71c | 283.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 282$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Yes | 69c | 270.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 16c | 248.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 21c | 246.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 184.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 60c | 140.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 60c | 138.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 63c | 137$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 66c | 123.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 59c | 113.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 34c | 104.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…d122backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 62c | 97.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 54c | 93.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 88.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…5890backed Yes | 68c | 87.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…2fbdbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d1ebbacked Yes | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 47c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 61.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Yes | 56c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 60c | 52.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 46c | 51.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 52c | 50.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…8b79backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…1404backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 57c | 36.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 56c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 65c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.