Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03e25655b5cf5bf6ac983bb4ccd646b7b3d9d11d5d72b6b85aa2d4dbe67576b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,583$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,503$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 8c | 1,289$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,136$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 16c | 1,016$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 31c | 973.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 788.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 21c | 718.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 68c | 673.99$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 13c | 643.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 13c | 639.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 14c | 636.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 40c | 526.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…c88bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 16c | 499.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 16c | 441.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…c9b9backed Yes | 49c | 409.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 402$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 17c | 364.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 337.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 20c | 311.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 310$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 15c | 309.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…acd7backed Yes | 38c | 265.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…8bacbacked Yes | 54c | 184.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 29c | 140.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 10c | 122.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…5890backed Yes | 42c | 115.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…5991backed Yes | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…12adbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 68c | 77.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 25c | 60.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…ef77backed No | 76c | 58.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 23c | 47.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.