Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389a63db34601ff94c9996b40726f8f903416fbfafb3af6518ad3984294d588c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed No | 6c | 4,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked No | 1c | 2,432$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +733.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 41c | 1,228$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked No | 10c | 871.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…c98abacked No | 4c | 790$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 66c | 711.21$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 651.93$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 28c | 513.12$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.68 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…5772backed Yes | 31c | 441.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 42c | 436.03$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 38c | 399.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.99 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…ebacbacked Yes | 10c | 385.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 373.87$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 33c | 300.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 40c | 295.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 31c | 269.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.42 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 245.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 35c | 243.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 36c | 239.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 39c | 238.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed No | 72c | 235$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 48c | 209.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 49c | 201.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed No | 56c | 199.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 25c | 192.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 186.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 19c | 177.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…a1f3backed Yes | 49c | 173.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 65c | 163.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked Yes | 68c | 161.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 27c | 139.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 40c | 139.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 41c | 130$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 60c | 123.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 122.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7b97backed Yes | 46c | 109.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 65cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…ef77backed No | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…2790backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 25c | 97.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 95.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c8…35ebbacked Yes | 62c | 79.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…a303backed Yes | 41c | 60.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed No | 75c | 59.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 42c | 57.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 60c | 50.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 26c | 41.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed No | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed No | 62c | 38.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 39c | 36.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…9f9fbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked Yes | 57c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…44fabacked Yes | 52c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…1661backed Yes | 50c | 26.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ba69backed Yes | 64c | 25.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…7b4fbacked Yes | 63c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…e63ebacked Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or below on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.