Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626762c0e6ec399053242c6bb42e00f71758ce56f469b7006853e4d4e1e23fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 5,114$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 63c | 631.26$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 406.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 394.16$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 361.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 44c | 299.55$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed Yes | 67c | 232.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 36c | 221.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 58c | 203.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 7c | 197.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 148.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 36c | 148.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 73c | 141.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 39c | 126.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 44c | 114.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 112.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 38c | 99.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 46c | 97.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…6a38backed Yes | 56c | 94.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…148dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 72.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 57c | 70.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c8…35ebbacked No | 55c | 67.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 61.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 34c | 56.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 33c | 53.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…2790backed Yes | 38c | 53.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…8220backed Yes | 80c | 50.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 63c | 49.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…9f9fbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…1661backed Yes | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 55c | 27.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked No | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 45c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or below on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.