Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a533951ea3b8975353f16736d18f67ad76cd2ab74e0d2016a2cfabb10fb20cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,560$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,444$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,374$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 935.61$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 737$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 47c | 535.9$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.49 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 11c | 531.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…e972backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e68…8a28backed Yes | 43c | 493.13$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 39c | 363.03$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 79c | 315.99$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 62c | 290.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 60c | 249.72$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 39c | 219.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 212$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 56c | 195$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 55c | 180.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…2153backed No | 68c | 147.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 145.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 48c | 125.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…66ebbacked Yes | 63c | 123.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed No | 50c | 119$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…ba00backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 68c | 103.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…a279backed Yes | 19c | 102.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 64c | 101.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 51c | 93.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked No | 57c | 89.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 52c | 89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Yes | 50c | 89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Yes | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 61c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…3c0abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 45c | 73.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 47c | 70.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 59c | 69.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4a23backed No | 63c | 54.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 47c | 53.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 55c | 50.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d7dbbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 57c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0422…c032backed Yes | 42c | 40.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa360…37c1backed No | 60c | 40.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 43c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed No | 63c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Yes | 51c | 20.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d1…f2f6backed Yes | 58c | 17.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.