Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf8739da18ad8acf8d7f09f08a22d0ae54360fed61d48d20ff01df002c027d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b56…0a08backed Yes | 38c | 3,235$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 80c | 1,973$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.89 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,943$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.23 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 19c | 1,910$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.22 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 2c | 1,216$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 24c | 795.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 681.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e68…8a28backed No | 79c | 606.57$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1591…44d9backed No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 46c | 503.29$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…5772backed Yes | 30c | 458.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed Yes | 71c | 417.92$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 78c | 410.51$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 5c | 377.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 31c | 306.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 75c | 264.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…44b7backed No | 69c | 256.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 224.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.23 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 23c | 223$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…a279backed No | 60c | 221$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 213$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 68c | 208.17$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 42c | 196.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 67c | 187.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 59c | 170.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 155.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 79c | 150.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 14c | 135.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 35c | 135.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 49c | 135$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked No | 49c | 133.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…050abacked No | 60c | 122.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 116.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.29 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 77c | 115.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 52c | 107.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 24c | 106.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 24c | 90.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 64c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 33c | 86.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 75c | 80.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 20c | 59.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 27c | 56.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc05d…abc5backed No | 80c | 23.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…1661backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.