Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c85e5995b6d68298c9d02da80655bbf96e9439c8a98ffef3c754a03e4ace345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 1c | 10,121$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,077$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…1badbacked Yes | 55c | 1,410$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 26c | 796.75$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.22 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 78c | 496.79$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 495.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 58c | 495.2$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 450.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 61c | 443.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.28 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 423.44$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 326.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 24c | 300.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed Yes | 65c | 283.22$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…f12ebacked Yes | 42c | 213.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 24c | 210.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 57c | 195.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 194.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 189.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 10c | 187.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 20c | 167.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…4cd2backed Yes | 37c | 162.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…258ebacked Yes | 31c | 161.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…958cbacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 15c | 159.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 78c | 158.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x83e6…8e70backed No | 69c | 153$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Yes | 35c | 150.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…d45cbacked Yes | 70c | 143.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 35c | 106.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 21c | 95.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 46c | 92.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 24c | 83.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…86d6backed Yes | 62c | 80.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 39c | 78.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 78c | 77.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 77.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…62ddbacked Yes | 52c | 76.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Yes | 64c | 76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Yes | 28c | 70.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…76a8backed Yes | 78c | 67.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 62c | 67.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 66.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…4bf3backed Yes | 30c | 64.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…8d89backed Yes | 59c | 59.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…697abacked Yes | 71c | 58.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 39c | 49.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…bf96backed No | 77c | 48.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 35.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 48c | 34.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…ef77backed Yes | 53c | 33.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…5651backed Yes | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…e161backed Yes | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f5…6866backed Yes | 62c | 25.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ba69backed Yes | 41c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 61c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905b…c9d1backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 66c | 21.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…9494backed No | 63c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on November 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on November 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on November 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.