Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe63ba7cc2f0d835049643456d5330103623e642af270efafa3a4b4294f7a54e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x193f…dd5dbacked No | 8c | 2,593$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 2c | 2,086$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 2c | 1,227$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 2c | 1,220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 1,029$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 6c | 875.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 9c | 833$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 661.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 5c | 650.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 3c | 612.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 466.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…8024backed No | 3c | 382.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…cb36backed No | 5c | 305.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…8d85backed No | 7c | 290.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…c0bcbacked No | 15c | 289.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…8a9dbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa1…4c72backed No | 13c | 148.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked No | 14c | 140.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 16c | 103.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 76c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 62°F or higher on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.