Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ce751d9c7b7ca90b36fddf8f89d0676c39278222bb7841dda2243d8b3059f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fc3…18f1backed No | 2c | 929.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 3c | 631.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 78c | 369.84$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.88$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.35 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 336.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 309.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 286.12$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 4c | 282.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 79c | 193.43$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 26c | 185.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 40c | 177.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…4eb1backed No | 39c | 174.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 58c | 164.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 49c | 154.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 147.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 140.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 59c | 128.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 125.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 120.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 34c | 104.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 65c | 104.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 100.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 37c | 96.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cca…a1e2backed No | 13c | 85.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 73c | 64.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 24c | 63.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 50.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 46c | 49.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 48c | 46.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 33c | 43.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 54c | 39.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 38.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 28c | 36.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 60c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…976fbacked Yes | 41c | 32.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 67c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 40c | 28.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…b1f8backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…5aa4backed No | 75c | 23.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 79c | 23.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed No | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 79c | 19.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…16a6backed Yes | 72c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…42febacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.