Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa38f2036d7937e0925ad12bf634dab83103bf17a887c28a9f6065d9c8f1b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 583.08$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…9e92backed No | 71c | 360.27$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 54c | 355.91$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 44c | 303.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 272.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 54c | 181.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 172.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 46c | 165.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes | 66c | 156.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 19c | 152.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 57c | 150.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 26c | 136.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…9773backed No | 57c | 97.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6914…8f72backed No | 68c | 96.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 51c | 95.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 34c | 89.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 89.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 26c | 88.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 71.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 61c | 61.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 57.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 40c | 50.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 57c | 50.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 50.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Yes | 68c | 49.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 59c | 43.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 40.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 30.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…b1f8backed No | 57c | 28.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 38c | 26.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 78c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 63c | 24.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 42c | 24.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 58c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 63c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.