Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a857127684f5b178600d9cf7f9dde943396ec777fbe3b6028e27a0a4e578ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Natus Vincere, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58bc…1fdbbacked Natus Vincere | 6c | 6,200$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 3,067$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.75 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Natus Vincere | 5c | 2,240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 1,982$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.45 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…7fcfbacked Yakutou Brothers | 58c | 1,719$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,280$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.66 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 941.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 906.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 825.49$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.36 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yakutou Brothers | 72c | 820.11$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.85 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 776.7$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.73 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 520$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 46c | 490$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…fe5dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 444.7$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yakutou Brothers | 40c | 359.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 24c | 294.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.58 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 291.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Yakutou Brothers | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 270.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yakutou Brothers | 33c | 204.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.26 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed Natus Vincere | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…ec4dbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 157.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Yakutou Brothers | 43c | 151.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 139.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 34c | 134.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 117$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yakutou Brothers | 37c | 107.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 83.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 64.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 48.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Yakutou Brothers | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 41.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b00…7cbbbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 36.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 34.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 33.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…a5d8backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yakutou Brothers | 60c | 28.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.