Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaff05c745908a7ddf588a9f21c064c4255d3ed6a27a5fb08752de95408feed62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 5,674$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.82 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yakutou Brothers | 53c | 5,337$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,844.55 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 54c | 5,281$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 4,163$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.9 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 3,244$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.54 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Yakutou Brothers | 36c | 2,743$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 45c | 2,735$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.21 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,956$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.77 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,667$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.81 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakutou Brothers | 44c | 1,578$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,374$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.16 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Yakutou Brothers | 3c | 1,096$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakutou Brothers | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 960.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.71 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yakutou Brothers | 45c | 960$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.28 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 879.82$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yakutou Brothers | 5c | 800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 796.7$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.11 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…fe5dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 46c | 658.31$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 604.17$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 599.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 7c | 520.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 467.71$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yakutou Brothers | 37c | 416.05$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 399.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 337.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Yakutou Brothers | 69c | 318.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 308.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 275.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.82 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yakutou Brothers | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Yakutou Brothers | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…df94backed Yakutou Brothers | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 225.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Yakutou Brothers | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 197.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…9447backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yakutou Brothers | 65c | 158.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 153$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…e2cdbacked Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 85.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 79.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Yakutou Brothers | 48c | 79.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…687abacked Yakutou Brothers | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…a75ebacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 45.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…edb0backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Yakutou Brothers | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 27.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…a5d8backed Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.