TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,871 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a15…dfb4backed No0c6,701$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No2c2,566$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2410060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No8c1,818$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.084,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes70c1,560$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.6416738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe35a…e615backed Yes25c1,306$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.575824.1%14 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed No1c1,306$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No70c1,282$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.8391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffc…ce04backed No1c1,250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c1,180$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7639810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed No74c961.51$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.5429137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No8c816.31$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No3c773.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes72c677.57$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6126265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No2c543.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2116968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed Yes65c498.95$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.451963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c498.64$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes66c489.78$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8743021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c471.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes26c382.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.071,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c315.15$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.413,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No35c302.4$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2ced…e412backed Yes31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes36c295.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.496033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes38c276.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.31,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes29c257.09$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c250.33$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes39c230.72$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes25c230$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.510650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes38c212.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5317156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes77c196.78$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.562,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes45c180.56$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No12c175.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.122,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0494…631fbacked No8c161$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.173060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c160$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd244…40b1backed Yes41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.51,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No15c149.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.626828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes33c144.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.481,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bca…8fe0backed Yes38c130$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c125.08$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes25c125$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.755141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…eab8backed Yes23c121.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.864030%12 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No37c105.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.751,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes39c100.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8623231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes26c100.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1632044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7316840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7326827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7541070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed Yes46c96.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.067552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes58c94.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.181,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c91.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.471,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d41…b2bfbacked Yes19c91.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed No73c89.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9412932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5282…95dcbacked Yes30c87.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes28c82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0411128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes29c80.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0122028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.286,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.674353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes30c61.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.493517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes26c58.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.637728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…2202backed No57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes29c55.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.67939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes38c52.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.264332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3212735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.827540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.218842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e90…6303backed No65c47.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No66c45.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4724569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c45.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.874,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes44c45.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2214736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes34c44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes30c44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd6…2b30backed No80c43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes29c42.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3510537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes77c42.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.873,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3578…feb9backed No62c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes31c41.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.584339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes28c41.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes59c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a6…15c0backed No58c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa88e…4383backed No62c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c33.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6e…17abbacked No62c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No74c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d4…6b5dbacked No58c31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes38c30.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.824850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3520546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd73…74dcbacked No80c29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes59c27.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.126753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No62c26.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.589055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab42…3b6abacked No58c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.