Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b931a62774348fd21acf38bf1c54b81b163c64369fea53574124e9bd39d1ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,871 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 0c | 6,701$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 2c | 2,566$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 1,818$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 70c | 1,560$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.64 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 25c | 1,306$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.57 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed No | 1c | 1,306$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 1,282$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.83 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,180$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 74c | 961.51$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 8c | 816.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 773.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 72c | 677.57$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 2c | 543.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 65c | 498.95$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 498.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 66c | 489.78$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.87 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 471.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 382.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 315.15$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 302.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 36c | 295.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 276.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 29c | 257.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.09 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 250.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 230.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 25c | 230$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 38c | 212.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 196.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 45c | 180.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 12c | 175.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 8c | 161$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…40b1backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 33c | 144.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…8fe0backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 125.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 23c | 121.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 37c | 105.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 100.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 100.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 46c | 96.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 94.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 91.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…b2bfbacked Yes | 19c | 91.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 73c | 89.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…95dcbacked Yes | 30c | 87.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 29c | 80.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 30c | 61.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 26c | 58.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…2202backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 29c | 55.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e90…6303backed No | 65c | 47.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 66c | 45.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 45.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd6…2b30backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 29c | 42.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 42.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…feb9backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 31c | 41.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 41.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a6…15c0backed No | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…4383backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…17abbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…6b5dbacked No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 38c | 30.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…74dcbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 62c | 26.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab42…3b6abacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.