Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356849c717c6f6039a47a579c3323bef342ef7e1cfd69bad44899daf2d1ae365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,945 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 2,296$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,090$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,998$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.59 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,671$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 1,664$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,365$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 44c | 888.65$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.34 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 886.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 874.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 605.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 577.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 513.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…e32fbacked Yes | 4c | 490.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 464.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed No | 77c | 457.4$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 22c | 426.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 383.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 330.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 319.08$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 50c | 298.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.91 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 288.35$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 21c | 282.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 5c | 279.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 275.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 250.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0d0dbacked Yes | 53c | 247.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 18c | 243.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 48c | 242.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 19c | 240$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 21c | 206.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 14c | 200.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 199.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 195.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 8c | 188.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 9c | 175.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 79c | 172$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 24c | 171.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 13c | 154.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 10c | 148.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 58c | 141.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 71c | 125.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 10c | 117.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 50c | 110.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…903dbacked Yes | 12c | 109.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…8510backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbe…fa6cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 97.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 43c | 97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 22c | 88.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…c8eebacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 14c | 86.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 19c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…2ea9backed Yes | 23c | 80.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b6…bb42backed Yes | 21c | 78.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 68c | 77.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 75.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 17c | 75.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…2c95backed Yes | 54c | 69.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 67.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…e613backed Yes | 22c | 67.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 64c | 67.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 49c | 66.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 79c | 62.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 17c | 60.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…3d3dbacked Yes | 26c | 58.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 25c | 56.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 54.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 20c | 51.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 49.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 40c | 48.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 46c | 43.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 41c | 40.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 74c | 36.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342d…3f9fbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…4ff7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…ce32backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 48c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.