Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd71acd44b484172f14bcec22f96e5b2af9ecb98fcfea5f4aaf1236033699bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,464 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 1c | 11,272$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,642$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 3c | 2,823$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 2c | 639.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 17c | 635.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 13c | 581.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 557.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 18c | 310.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 298.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 16c | 282.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 5c | 279.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 278.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 263.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…6120backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 25c | 198.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 14c | 190.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 189.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 11c | 185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 20c | 177.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 8c | 177.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 177.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 173.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 166.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 15c | 147.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 140.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 12c | 126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 124.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 117.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 13c | 117.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 12c | 113.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f2…0884backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 29c | 107.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 104.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 15c | 100.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 11c | 99.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 15c | 99.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…4e2dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 98.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 31c | 97.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 96.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 90.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bb…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 90.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…589cbacked Yes | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 17c | 86.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 78.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 28c | 71.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 61.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 56.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 19c | 51.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 74c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9b6fbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b1…af56backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.