TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA dip to $172 in November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c14,890$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.151,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes50c8,000$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,969.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes41c3,183$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.721637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed No48c2,907$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.1223253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdefe…17f4backed No54c2,525$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.734560%27 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4f…217cbacked No4c2,452$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No61c2,440$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.8510442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes67c2,014$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes49c1,501$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.736631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c1,494$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-78.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes77c1,158$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.2881240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked No68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bec0backed Yes32c599.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes53c499.17$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.275722.8%13 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No60c386$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.842853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes40c343.59$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes39c320.81$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.0735151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed No66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a1…6535backed No71c300$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes52c293.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-5.8wins-0.36per pick42cpaid-88%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No55c279.5$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.52450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked No77c250.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5316844.6%75 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.57848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb2…79e2backed No64c250$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes26c231.12$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+278.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes45c229.66$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.575418.5%10 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes22c221.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.192416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5757…6157backed Yes39c218.25$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…94d1backed Yes55c217.37$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c208.55$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6686338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c200.01$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0126237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c200$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63b5…7ec8backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5297backed No57c199.96$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No77c196.3$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.775263.5%33 W · 19 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick75cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed No60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x749a…f349backed No77c177.74$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8650%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No52c169.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.943838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes51c153.62$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.662544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d43…920fbacked Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No26c148.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.219124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No37c120.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6421820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No60c119$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7312360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes46c117$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.041136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4512035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8499038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c6…0b43backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62cb…e2e0backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ec…7d4abacked No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x788b…046abacked No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No37c98.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.138524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc615…e83bbacked Yes46c89.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes42c80.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.06825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c76.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2629323.2%68 W · 225 L-31.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c71.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7224126.1%63 W · 178 L-26.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-51.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe89a…cab3backed No60c70.15$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c4…75cebacked Yes46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes56c61.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0427338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+74%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes42c59.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.092250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc09…4461backed No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c53.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7917049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa287…577ebacked Yes62c52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+132.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…4eb0backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes42c48.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb49…1cf0backed Yes56c48.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes48c46.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.294443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No56c46.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7256548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed No77c46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes41c42.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…78e9backed No59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8f…d61bbacked Yes48c41.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.852060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041a…2dafbacked Yes36c41.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc583…677abacked No57c37.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ca…3acbbacked No58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes54c34.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.873327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed Yes62c32.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc32a…8c4dbacked Yes79c31.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19835.7%35 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb9…f5cbbacked Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2d…cbe8backed No54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e2…eddabacked Yes52c27.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4930…ca50backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes56c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.