Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2633dba6da9ecb00b0ad30568a9d19c49434c4d22e5ad0191820a95c1f7260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 3,400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 8c | 1,732$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,515$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.39 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 12c | 1,224$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…0239backed Yes | 24c | 841.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 14c | 833.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 771.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 724.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…ec60backed Yes | 1c | 718.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 8c | 686.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…bec0backed Yes | 18c | 672.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 12c | 587.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 13c | 464.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 358.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 342.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 336.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Yes | 16c | 291.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 284.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 272.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…e4f7backed Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Yes | 18c | 232$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 14c | 216.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 210.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…8072backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 18c | 188.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…fb76backed No | 70c | 177$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 16c | 176.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 42cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…418cbacked Yes | 10c | 154.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 12c | 140.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…94d1backed Yes | 15c | 135.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 134.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 100.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 20c | 98.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 21c | 77.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…80d3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…b6afbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 76c | 43.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 77c | 38.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in November?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $172 in November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $200 in November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $190 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $224 in November?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $252 in November?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $288 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.