Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb11234b3b18ed3e58374514e0eaf6c30268a290b3c30de1d041aa2502991595c

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,314
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,314 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3151…0977backed Under	35c	9,181$3,213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,967.89	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+4.7wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over	65c	9,090$5,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,906.53	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Under	38c	3,000$1,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,860	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over	65c	3,000$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,949.94	102	32.4%33 W · 69 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Under	55c	1,344$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.77	149	52.3%78 W · 71 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	40c	1,297$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$782.74	2,025	43.7%884 W · 1,141 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…4b40backed Over	43c	1,159$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under	34c	1,092$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$721.44	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	+9.0wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Over	62c	1,054$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.93	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	61c	1,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	39c	1,000$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	35c	951.43$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$618.43	210	37.1%78 W · 132 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0521…cc4abacked Over	49c	817.31$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	34c	809.26$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.06	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	65c	781.88$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.23	306	57.5%176 W · 130 L	+11.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Over	66c	654.48$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over	4c	579$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	187	7%13 W · 174 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Under	53c	569.12$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.12	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b3b5backed Under	53c	521$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.69	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.26per pick	57cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under	50c	518.75$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.78	140	44.3%62 W · 78 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	52c	482.13$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.76	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over	64c	400$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+81%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Over	66c	337.82$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.96	164	47.6%78 W · 86 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495f…06b0backed Over	61c	320$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Over	66c	303.03$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f5…e4dabacked Under	39c	302.56$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.56	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	36c	257.12$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.51	63	39.7%25 W · 38 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Over	68c	220.59$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	39c	202.56$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Under	38c	200$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	61	39.3%24 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	46c	173.81$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5631…bd3abacked Over	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x949e…b13abacked Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95f…c250backed Over	64c	140.63$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80b6…ebb8backed Over	63c	103.17$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba6b…62b4backed Under	37c	100.05$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.03	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+141.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	36c	100$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	176	58.5%103 W · 73 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b9e…40a5backed Over	66c	100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	33c	100$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under	37c	90.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.29	174	26.4%46 W · 128 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0530…d8febacked Over	65c	73$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Under	35c	71.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.98	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Under	39c	71.8$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.8	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	53cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed Over	66c	71.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.08	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	65c	69$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.85	206	67.5%139 W · 67 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c3…cc88backed Over	63c	66.73$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	66c	62.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.56	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed Over	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Under	72c	55.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.56	175	60%105 W · 70 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Over	61c	53.38$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.56	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Over	66c	53.03$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	228	47.8%109 W · 119 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	61c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Under	37c	49.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over	66c	48.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.04	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Over	63c	47.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Over	64c	38.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+730.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Over	65c	38.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-4.6wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdb…529dbacked Over	32c	36.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4626…d40bbacked Over	65c	35.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Over	65c	35.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…ff29backed Over	62c	35.38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Under	67c	32.9$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.86	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+4.8wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd773…bc20backed Over	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf9…1646backed Over	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8153…c439backed Over	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Over	63c	30$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71c…3b29backed Under	65c	29.99$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	63c	20.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	66	66.7%44 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-4.2wins	-0.21per pick	56cpaid	-34%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x295c…a424backed Over	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Juventus FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event