TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$371,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7e0…f075backed No0c58,225$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Yes43c37,699$16,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,603.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed No0c35,316$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed Yes31c25,008$7,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,307.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked No2c15,097$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51e…5202backed Yes4c12,619$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,1602100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,899.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No15c11,290$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Yes45c11,255$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,191.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No69c9,426$6,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,470.616943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad5…4dd0backed No2c8,237$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab0…3500backed Yes8c8,005$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,389.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,201.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3fb…c3eebacked No2c6,523$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No45c3,524$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.693534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No9c3,324$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.482254.5%12 W · 10 L+6.4wins+0.29per pick26cpaid+157.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No33c3,136$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.882814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4579…9f19backed No2c3,094$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…881cbacked No1c2,673$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No47c2,532$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.234930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31f…e63dbacked No47c2,154$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.831338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4dc…0fc3backed No2c1,800$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed No1c1,786$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c1,644$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed No1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b1…7aa2backed No1c1,432$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed No1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked No2c1,358$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+128.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No45c1,297$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.312161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No6c1,169$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.853228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab2…cba6backed No1c1,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No2c1,115$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed Yes5c1,106$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.515554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No63c1,000$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6251637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes12c1,000$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+318.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No30c987.09$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.795944.1%26 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No74c900$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc630…fbe4backed No1c875.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c856.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.154629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No70c852.68$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf51…4b53backed Yes4c730.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.38616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa90…e841backed Yes14c713.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No20c700$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.195836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes21c694.6$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.53580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+259.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes62c638.89$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes10c603.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed7…14d2backed No52c552$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No17c528.58$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2747…f083backed Yes4c508.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+403.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes4c500$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick1cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked No50c500$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No28c459.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.12156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No67c454.75$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick49cpaid-73.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes49c396.57$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.96825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No33c392.26$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed No3c350.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed No74c337.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes38c301.52$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.863935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes23c262.33$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick8cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf892…f232backed No40c249.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc1…f822backed Yes60c249.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes27c242.75$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+275.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ad…3581backed No12c239.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes15c236$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.31616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed Yes7c224.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+678.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f6…eee9backed No4c223.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c214.01$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes6c206.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.14812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick2cpaid+124.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7415119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked No59c200$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed No63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…d0a2backed No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x382d…07d9backed No66c188.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked No67c180$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c177.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.523710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No66c167.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes8c130$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.951910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No79c105.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.650%0 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4534…ec22backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.83540%14 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…b0d0backed No12c94.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No66c90$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes18c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No41c76.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3539116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes23c72.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.137222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe632…aa26backed No68c70$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No52c60.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.261450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.766240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e18…f10bbacked Yes34c59.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes79c58.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.441060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+199%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No71c57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.375563.6%35 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b23…5e5ebacked Yes39c51.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.