Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71110a27dca4f0cd82926843290a97986fd93f3bb122e9201b983e7bed240b37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,290$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 46c | 1,254$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.42 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 43c | 1,241$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.3 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…b6ecbacked Yes | 68c | 1,034$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 65c | 774.77$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.8 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 64c | 600.31$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 79c | 546.61$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed Yes | 59c | 546.59$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 58c | 524.89$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 55c | 523.56$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.34 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 40c | 466.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…63ffbacked Yes | 44c | 456.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 24c | 444$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.46 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 57c | 394.36$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 60c | 394$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.14 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 30c | 372.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked No | 44c | 316.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…0e4cbacked Yes | 64c | 305.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 10c | 263.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Yes | 71c | 250$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 57c | 244.91$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 49c | 241.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 241.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed No | 68c | 230$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 62c | 223.56$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 60c | 221.28$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 71c | 217.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 33c | 200.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2b…56c9backed No | 68c | 197$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 183.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac41…5a10backed No | 49c | 157.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…6044backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…849ebacked Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 24c | 137.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 134.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 54c | 110.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 107.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 104$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…9c9dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 98.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 41c | 96.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 28c | 90.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 65c | 85.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea38…fc69backed Yes | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 53c | 75.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 72.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed Yes | 65c | 69.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5469…f7a7backed Yes | 58c | 68.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb350…047abacked No | 39c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 71c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked Yes | 58c | 51.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…34efbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e7…e3b4backed Yes | 40c | 45.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…5583backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Yes | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 42.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd66…2ec1backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 72c | 37.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 42cpaid | -88%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…14b0backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a41fbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400–420 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420–440 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440–460 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500–520 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520–540 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$400 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$560 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.