Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500–520 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa685f4c8f04671287258c46d40262d00cee5c54197d03a3470d93ee9a118bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 10c | 1,305$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 15c | 1,264$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.51 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 10c | 900.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 7c | 796.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 645.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 11c | 599.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 591.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 11c | 559.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…1b61backed Yes | 11c | 541.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 13c | 493.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…7788backed Yes | 18c | 452.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…0893backed Yes | 17c | 415.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 9c | 399.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 9c | 396$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 10c | 327.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 324$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 11c | 282.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 30c | 265.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 9c | 261.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed Yes | 11c | 250.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 224.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…4aa7backed Yes | 25c | 196.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 17c | 164.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 12c | 138.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 13c | 136.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 113.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 105.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…6ec4backed Yes | 13c | 100.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 13c | 98.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 16c | 90.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 73c | 63.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500–520 in 2025?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400–420 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420–440 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440–460 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520–540 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$400 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$560 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.