Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46dd2fb6d1119af6c7957473a409e7295f0ea7b9a5fa19d61a20a80e91877e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,932$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.1 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 30c | 1,319$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.17 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 26c | 1,293$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.32 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 76c | 1,202$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 75c | 871.2$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.41 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 33c | 679.11$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 30c | 575.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…8f62backed Yes | 27c | 547.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 68c | 521.1$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 475.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.69 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 68c | 452.5$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 79c | 419.43$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 29c | 399.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 16c | 383.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…6631backed Yes | 26c | 371.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…b240backed No | 66c | 364.38$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 340.7$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 18c | 318.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 314.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 310.85$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 79c | 309.85$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 281.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…baf6backed Yes | 28c | 278.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed No | 73c | 270$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 263.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked Yes | 32c | 225.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…3bd8backed Yes | 13c | 222.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2b…56c9backed No | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 201$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…b370backed Yes | 31c | 198$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +542%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 34c | 194.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 31c | 181.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 63c | 165$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…7519backed Yes | 31c | 164.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9c…33bcbacked Yes | 38c | 156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 79c | 125.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 77c | 124$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 73c | 123.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 122.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 29c | 111.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked No | 69c | 98.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 21c | 90.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 72.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed No | 78c | 67.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 70c | 62.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 55.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…ea89backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef06…a203backed Yes | 33c | 42.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…02adbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…50d9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 79c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…16b9backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400–420 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420–440 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440–460 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $480–500 in 2025?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500–520 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520–540 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at <$400 in 2025?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$560 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.