Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in October 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54598538298cc0a95cb55be4a42a4ab48286349eba44314c18bf13c8aa677f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20a6…268abacked No | 49c | 1,331$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…2360backed Yes | 51c | 1,331$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…0b48backed No | 49c | 1,299$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…e0f7backed Yes | 51c | 1,299$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 1,005$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.18 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 641.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c45…8d65backed Yes | 51c | 599$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…e2d5backed No | 49c | 599$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 16c | 503.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.09 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 72c | 330$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…ef3cbacked Yes | 51c | 321$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 31c | 303.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes | 15c | 225$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Yes | 47c | 211.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 26c | 199$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…8851backed Yes | 52c | 192.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…6c98backed No | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…a403backed Yes | 15c | 149.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…2df4backed Yes | 21c | 140.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes | 72c | 138.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…0ba6backed No | 75c | 135.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0629…b513backed No | 77c | 104.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59a…5bbfbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…9401backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 45c | 96.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecf…216bbacked No | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e6dcbacked No | 49c | 82.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 54c | 80.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…a5dcbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1f…f157backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 77.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 40c | 68.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…778abacked No | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +135%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…26d5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…6ca8backed Yes | 52c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…18cabacked Yes | 79c | 31.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 77c | 29.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…79f4backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 80c | 22.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in October 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in October 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.