TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in October 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,186 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c1,005$103 inLost-$102.6645911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes27c430.62$116 inLost-$116.0368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes30c275.07$83 inLost-$82.523414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c184.47$42 inLost-$41.592,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48b…648ebacked No60c177.48$107 inWon+$70.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes6c169.99$10 inLost-$10.24818.8%9 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0666…0ba6backed No71c165.81$118 inWon+$47.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes40c154.91$62 inLost-$61.6146521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc59a…5bbfbacked Yes27c150$41 inLost-$40.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes37c148.65$55 inLost-$5520717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes9c137.99$13 inLost-$12.823036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes22c110.96$24 inLost-$24.413622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…a403backed Yes16c102.17$16 inLost-$16.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c09…df0bbacked Yes18c100.89$18 inLost-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a34…a5dcbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost-$455232.7%17 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost-$3273215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes17c98.33$17 inLost-$17234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick16cpaid-93.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed Yes36c77.36$28 inLost-$27.551241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick16cpaid+145.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0bf…9401backed Yes27c73.81$20 inLost-$19.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes36c60.98$22 inLost-$22.0352619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes42c55.38$23 inLost-$23.3488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes36c55.13$20 inLost-$19.6897.9%7 W · 82 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes37c54.47$20 inLost-$205018%9 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b36…87b0backed Yes28c45$13 inLost-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37f4…8697backed Yes36c40$14 inLost-$14.350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e6dcbacked No68c35.42$24 inWon+$11.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.