Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46cd69cd7706348c70d038ccc4267920d5648fe93be4f3475a6763f37de01d13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 13c | 2,649$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.23 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,856$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 55c | 1,279$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.9 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 6c | 789.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 36c | 787.88$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.73 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Yes | 22c | 561.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 49c | 555$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 54c | 546.06$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 387.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 63c | 346.88$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 39c | 314.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…f8bbbacked Yes | 34c | 293.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 45c | 263.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 220.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 67c | 218$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 206.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 185$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 158.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 62c | 140.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 140.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0d…c2ebbacked No | 47c | 105.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 25c | 104.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…d16dbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…141ebacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…b465backed Yes | 55c | 86.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 37c | 84.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…28d6backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 60c | 66.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…653fbacked No | 76c | 65.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 64.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 26c | 64.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 45c | 53.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 78c | 48.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 47.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd506…72a4backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 47c | 39.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…2fe3backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…ce3bbacked No | 41c | 24.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebe…32fbbacked No | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…9e94backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 66c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of November?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of November?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $260 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.