World Politics · resolved market
ANO wins 33% or more of vote in Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51cd8b84e9c811968aed1952a479ab5f93261bf546cbd293fa49001a18e9172c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 80c | 1,241$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 24c | 951.95$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.77 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…f2f9backed No | 20c | 875.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 25c | 875$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 44c | 746.74$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…0483backed No | 76c | 660.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked No | 74c | 604.53$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed No | 78c | 491.59$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 26c | 467.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 23c | 390.87$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.81 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed No | 77c | 389.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +298.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…efa0backed No | 71c | 341.14$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…b838backed No | 62c | 323.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 25c | 260.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.91 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…a634backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 26c | 250.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.72 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 46c | 244$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 225$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 38c | 140$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 73c | 135.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…894cbacked No | 75c | 131.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked No | 73c | 130.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 122.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 82.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 78.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 80c | 75.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 68c | 67.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 60.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…e99dbacked No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 52c | 41.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…45bdbacked Yes | 40c | 28.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.