Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b3d8208fa984f488b6b47d2c9f2a2020ee1f5d4bf3542ca3f48d78c2a1e380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 11,200$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 8,235$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.73 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,079$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 7c | 5,553$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 4,500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 4,295$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 9c | 3,623$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 6c | 3,063$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 2,779$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,561$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 2,435$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 5c | 2,277$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,257$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,561$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,361$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…4aa0backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 921.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…86adbacked Yes | 7c | 622.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 610$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 555$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 396.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 6c | 360$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 5c | 360$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 9c | 317.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…a154backed Yes | 7c | 303.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 283$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 74c | 267.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 238.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 210.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…d193backed Yes | 7c | 176.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 144.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.